Gambling with Iran

I think one would do well to look into this Washington Post Article concerning the changing relationship between the US and Iran. I could well be wrong, but i think this is very important, very bad news. The revelation that The US has ceased contact with the Iranian government does not bode well for stability in the Mid-East region. The reasons for this state of affairs are troubling, the planned US course of action is troubling- this has all the earmarks of a foreign policy disaster waiting to happen.

Although it is not cited in the article, I think it's fair to say that there have been diplomatic tensions in excess of what is usual between the two states in the wake of the Iraq war. It has been much speculated that the Iranian government and its proxies have taken advantage of the power vacuum in Iraq and involved themselves in its affairs to a degree that the US government finds meddlesome. On top of this, apparently, US intelligence indicates that some of the command and control of Al Qaeda responsible for the Riyadh and possibly Casablanca bombings are based in Iran. At least these two facts, combined with Iran's growing nuclear capacities and ambitions have persuaded the US government to cease communication with Tehran.

But this is where it really becomes frightening: the Bush administration, particularly the Pentagon, has become convinced that US policy should include aggressively destabilizing the Iranian government to promote its dissolution. I see enormous problems with this. There is significant disagreement even within the US government as to the level of popular discontent there is in Iran vis a vis their government. As usual, the State Department is in the cautious good-cop role, doubting strongly that there is enough resentment in Iran to fuel an uprising as successful as Iran's own in '79 and even suggesting that US encouragement of such an uprising would could result in the delegitimization of democrats and reformers.
Indeed, the acknowledged involvement of the US in such a policy could easily paint those agitating for a new revolution as pawns of the US. And it is my understanding that despite the widespread resentment of the authoritarian mullahs and ayatollahs that run Iran, the United States government is not much more esteemed among Iranians.

It strikes me that the Pentagon may be making faulty conclusions. According to the Post article, those Al Qaeda operating within Iran seem to be few in number and relegated to an isolated region near the Afghan border. It is certainly unclear and seems to me unlikely that Iran has any connection to or would provide support to Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda may or may not have committed acts of violence against Shi'ites, but groups affiliated with Al Qaeda such as Pakistan's Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) have. In general, Al Qaeda is a Sunni phenomenon and cooperation between it and Iran doesn't strike me as likely for either party.

As a former White House staffer has suggested, the timeline of a collapse of the Revolutionary authority may be profoundly unhelpful for our goals.

In addition, the proposed use of a Mujaheddin group called the MEK in a military campaign against Tehran strikes me as an odd and unfortunate combination of US actions in both the Afghani-Soviet conflict and the Bay of Pigs. And it strikes me that this is not where the US should be looking for its foreign policy strategies.

I understand very well the US animus against the Iranian govt. It was responsible for the hostage crisis of 79-80. It's probably the leading state sponsor of terrorism. Its (effective) leaders are fundamentalist Shia who are fundamentally opposed to American interests. However, letting such animus dictate our foreign policy is unwise and unsafe.

By the way, in checking to see if my assumptions about Al Qaeda anti-Shia attitudes were accurate, I came across this paper written by a retired Indian govt official. I think it shows a different perspective on Al Qaeda and Pakistani extremism than many are used to seeing. In particular, I found fascinating and infuriating the suggestion that Al Qaeda is portraying US policy as a Christian Fundamentalist war against Islam.