Good Job, John

I think John Kerry did a very admirable job in the first debate. I think it's an unqualified win. Matt Yglesias is right that it isn't a spectacular win. Considering the way this game is played, it's hard to imagine what would qualify as a a spectacular win. However, I think John Kerry has done the job he needed to do.
The larger foreign policy issue has become the center of this race, and I honestly had some worry about this debate because foreign policy, notwithstanding the fact that his has been disastrous by any objective measure, is Bush's strength. One can't get around the fact that Sepember 11th had a profound effect on a whole range of people. That great tragedy has become a significant point of manipulation by this president. That Kerry was able to win in a debate where so much and so many emotions were stacked against him says something about both men.
Despite Bush's robotic devotion to message, to a handful of carefully crafted slogans, Bush failed to connect, I think. Now, as someone who has long thought Bush was a terrible president, etc., I'm not the best judge of this. But I've seen Bush confident. I've seen him far more polished. When I saw Bush tonight I thought what he was presenting as confidence, ie. his insistence that he will win in November, came off as agitated boastfulness. Kerry may have only brought a few really killer attacks, but Bush seemed defensive and nervous.
The entire lefty blogosphere is saying Kerry was more presidential, and I'm inclined to agree. Kerry was relaxed, forceful but not overbearing, and seemed to be enjoying himself. (as much as Gore actually really won the debates in 2000, this was a better performance than those. Bush was doing the sighing this time) Bush grimaced and rolled eyes, and more than a few times his responses seemed impulsive and emotional. The one style point against Kerry was that he tended to look down and take notes a bit much of the time.
Overall, there were few catastrophic gaffes, although I thought it was quite funny when Bush admonished Kerry for sending "mexed missages"- and the whole idea that Bush seems to value "speaking clearly" so much is a bit rich. (food on your family etc. ad infinitum)
I won't say Kerry just won the election, but this moment was pretty much the make-or-break for his campaign, and he passed with flying colors. I watched the NBC broadcast, and in the wrapup they showed the expected focus group thingy. They interviewed 6 undecideds, all of whom, apparently, remain undecided. However, it was very encouraging. Each seemed to have thought Kerry had won this debate pretty decisively. Most said they remained undecided because they want to see what happens in subsequent debates. I don't think the subsequent debates favor Bush. For all the psyops and expectations management that's been going on, a town hall debate and a debate on domestic policy would appear to favor the Kerry of this debate over the Bush of this debate. The town hall will inevitably be more unpredictable, but I can imagine pretty well how Bush will be in the domestic policy debate. Bush gave us sort of a preview.
Bush will hammer Kerry on the notion he will raise taxes. So has it been lo these many decades. Bush will also perform a variety of his fuzzy math routine of 2000. He'll say there's a tax gap. Mark my words, tax gap is the new fuzzy math. But, given his performance tonight, I expect a similar sort of robotic message-pushing. As much as that can be effective at certain times, it can seem like avoidance of the real problems facing the country.
When something is a problem, and all Bush can say that there's progress and things are getting better, just trust me, he seems like the Baghdad Bob he's been occasionally compared to. If people believe the situation is in need of improvement, and I believe many do, Bush's "stay the course" mantra sounds less like steadfastness and more like inaction.